Horse Racing and more!
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NEWCASTLE A DERBY SPECIAL AT 4/6
Su Oct 23 – 1.30 pm ko (PremPlus)
The first Tyne & Wear derby for two and a half years takes place at St James’ Park on Sunday, and this could be the perfect opportunity for Newcastle to kick-start their season. The signing of Michael Owen helped to end the Magpies goals drought, but a key player for them could be Emre, who made his comeback at Wigan last week after two months out. The Geordies looked so much more fluent after the Turk came on, and he could be just the man to thread the ball through the way Owen likes. In that case, it’s hard to resist a few quid on Michael Owen to net first at 7/2, especially as we’ll give you your money back if he scores the last goal instead.
Newcastle have won the last three meetings without conceding (13/8 to win to nil on Saturday) and, if they score first, it should be game over too.
Both times they’ve taken the lead this season they’ve won, while the six times Sunderland have conceded first have ended in defeat, so a half-time lead for Toon should be money in the bank as far as the outright is concerned (4/7). Once the game kicks off, don't forget to check out our 14 live In-Play markets available through our ‘In-Play Console.’
Live Game Picks:
Newcastle @ 4/7
Michael Owen to score first @ 7/2
‘Mackems Can’t Reply’ (Newcastle to win to nil) @ 13/8
LATICS ARE UNDERESTIMATED AT 11/4
In other games this weekend, Wigan look to have been underestimated (again) by the layers, and are great value at 11/4 to beat Aston Villa. The home team are hard to fancy on their current form, and have conceded nearly three times as many league goals this season than the Latics. Charlton
(8/5) have made a great start to the season, especially away from home (only team other than Chelsea with a 100% record), and Portsmouth are unlikely to be the first team to inflict an away defeat on the Addicks.
With the Chelsea price of 2/5 there for the taking at home to Everton (6/5 to win to nil), we’ve got the makings of a decent acca this weekend, with our four fancied teams paying out £597.19 for a £25 stake, which includes a
bet365 bonus of 5%.
HORSE RACING
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SEPTIMUS CAN DELIVER THE POST TO O’BRIEN With just a couple weeks left of the turf flat season, Michael Stoute leads Aidan O’Brien by just over £100k in the Trainers Championship, and this week took action to protect his lead by supplementing Best Alibi for this Saturday’s Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster (3.30), a race that O’Brien needs to win to keep his title hopes alive. Winner of his most recent start at Leicester, Best Alibi has place prospects, but will do well to cope with whatever O’Brien runs from his quintet of entries. The best of these could be the unbeaten Septimus, whose winning debut has worked out brilliantly with the second, third and fifth all scoring next time out and, being by Saddlers Wells, he should handle any cut in the ground on Saturday. His trainer certainly knows what it takes to win this race having had four victories in the last eight years.
Racing Post Trophy Pick: Septimus
SANCHI IS WELL TREATED
On the same card, Sanchi looks a decent bet in the 1m 4f handicap (2.55), off a handicap mark of just 81. That looks extremely lenient when you consider this horse was talked of as an outsider for the Derby at the start of the season. He was a comfortable winner of his only race so far this season and, while this race is tougher, he still has enough potential to score again. Let’s hope he has more luck than last week’s Cesarewitch pick, King Revo, who nearly overcame the worst possible draw in stall one by finishing second at 14/1. The winner, Sergeant Cecil, was a popular winner at 10/1 for many bet365 customers, who were also able to take advantage of a free bet to the same stake on the next live Channel 4 race. Back a winner, at 4/1 or bigger, in any of the seven live races from Doncaster and Newbury this weekend to qualify.
KEEP EVAN ON YOUR SIDE
While the flat season is coming to a close, the jumps season is just warming up and there has been plenty of interest this week in Paul Nicholls at 11/10 to wrest the trainer’s championship away from Martin Pipe (Evens).
Nichols was expected to have a hatful of winners at Exeter this week, but suffered a bad bout of seconditis, with four of his runners all hitting the crossbar.
Instead, the training honours went to the up-and-coming Evan Williams, who confirmed his status as one of the rising stars of the National Hunt scene by sending out Dancer Life to win after a break of 420 days. This is definitely a trainer to stay on the right side in the coming months, and he looks to have found a good opportunity for Milbank to follow up his recent Uttoxeter win in the 3m handicap chase at Chepstow (4.20). That effort was his first for the yard and, off a handicap mark in the seventies (rated 97 at his peak in Ireland), there should be plenty of improvement to come. The race is not televised, but that won’t stop bet365 customers watching the race live via our new ‘Bet & Watch’ service, which allows you to watch EVERY race in the UK and Ireland live – why bet anywhere else!
GOLF
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OGILVY IS MAGIC AT 33/1
Th Oct 20 - 20.00 BST (SS2)
Fr Oct 21 - 20.00 BST (SS3)
Sa Oct 22 - 21.00 BST (SS2)
Su Oct 23 - 20.00 BST (SS2)
In the States we’ve got another pro-am with the Funai Classic at the Walt Disney resort in Florida. With scores again likely to be low on the wide-open Magnolia resort course, there’s a danger that we’ll see another long-priced winner like last week’s 500/1 no-hoper Wes Short (7/4 before the Playoff against Jim Furyk). However, for this year’s event, the course has been lengthened to make it one of the five longest on the Tour, which should at least help to sort the men from the boys, and that makes our price of 50/1 on Geoff Ogilvy even more tempting. This long straight driver has already shown what it takes to play well here by finishing in the top-10 for the last two years, and was in contention going into the final round of last week’s pro-am. Although he faltered to finish 16th, that was just one of many high finishes on the Tour this year, including a fifth in the Open and a sixth in the USPGA. As he’s currently 37th on the Money List, another good week could see him jump into the top-30, which ensures qualification for the season-ending Tour Championship.
There are no such money worries for Tiger Woods who tees up this week not far from his Orlando home, and in a State where he’s won seven times (average finish 7.4). However, he has been beaten in the last four ‘Disneys’ and, even at the Enhanced Win Only odds of 5/2, I would prefer to be taking longer prices this week. And, they don’t come much bigger than Scott Gutschewski at a standout 150/1. Three starlight top-20’s, giving him five in the season, have taken him to 148th on the Money List, and he too will be hoping for a big cheque to break into the top-125 and land his 2006 PGA Tour card. If his current form was not reason enough to back him, a quick look at his stats – 4th in total driving distance at over 310 yards!
– makes his price even harder to fathom.
Another outsider who looks over-priced is Joey Sindelar, again at a bet365 standout price of 100/1. Joey plays some of his best golf here with five top-20’s since 1990, including 4th last year. And, more to the point, this year has been his best for ages, with three top-10s and five top-20s from his last eight starts, which strongly suggests he’ll be thereabouts again this week. Don’t forget, once the first round gets under way, we’ll have live betting via our ‘In-Play Console’, which also includes prices on the current Round Leader.
Nigel’s Funai Classic Three Off The Tee: Geoff Ogilvy @ 33/1; Joey Sindelar @ 100/1; Scott Gutschewski @ 150/1 (Each-way ¼ odds 1.2.3.4.5.)
Get in the game and be lucky!
Nigel
NIGEL RIDGWAY, an experienced punter and betting shop owner of many years, believes that “The key to successful gambling is getting value for money.”
Nigel was once forced by local bookmakers, to stop writing a tipping column in a UK newspaper, because he was costing them a fortune. Find out what offers and lines are hot at Sports Betting
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